Go easy on the upsets... unless it's K-State

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By Michael Ashford (Contact)

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

This is all so strange, so new and foreign.

I had completely forgotten what it was like to print off my NCAA Tournament bracket and find “State” after “Kansas” in the field of 65 teams.

Had it really been 12 years since Kansas State was last in the NCAA Tournament? I was wallowing in the most awkward stages of middle school the last time the Wildcats actually made it to March Madness.

Of course, the mere fact that my alma mater was finally dancing again made me a little giddy inside.

It took all my strength not to immediately write Kansas State into that final box in the middle of the bracket — the one with “National Champion” above it in big, bold letters.

OK, OK, I’ll admit it, I have a second bracket where the Wildcats win it all behind the 45 points-per-game average of Michael Beasley, giving first-year head coach Frank Martin his One Shining Moment before B-Easy takes his show to the NBA.

Hey, a guy can dream, right?

But alas, I do have the ability to take off my purple-tinted glasses for brief moments at a time. After all, while Beasley has been superb all year long, Kansas State hasn’t exactly set the world on fire lately. Back in January, after Kansas State (finally) beat Kansas at home, the National Championship talk was plausible.

But even the most die-hard Wildcat fans would find it hard to argue that Kansas State has looked the part of a Big 12 Championship-caliber team lately, let alone National Championship-caliber.

So, I have another bracket, one that has the Wildcats winning two games to reach the Sweet 16 before falling to Georgetown, who, by the way, is my pick to win it all. Did I just spoil the surprise? Oh well.

This year’s bracket is very interesting in the fact that I did not go for many upsets. If you recall my column last March on this very subject, I even told you: When in doubt, pick the higher-seeded team.

This holds especially true this year.

Sure, I’ve got a few upsets here and there — No. 10 Davidson over No. 7 Gonzaga, No. 11 Baylor over No. 6 Purdue, No. 9 Arkansas over No. 8 Indiana — but by and large, my bracket was pretty straightforward this year.

But despite all that, here are a few pointers for those still unsure:

1. The Pac 10 and Big 12 were the two best conferences in the nation this year. The Big 10 was lousy. The Big East was just OK. When it comes to teams like Oklahoma, Baylor, Southern California and Stanford, don’t be afraid to pick them to go far. Their conferences were very strong.

As for teams like Indiana, Wisconsin, Villanova and West Virginia, tread lightly.

2. Go ahead and put all the No. 1 seeds in the Final Four — except Kansas. I don’t think the Jayhawks will be able to handle Georgetown in the Elite Eight.

3. Here are my sleeper teams, that is, teams that are seeded No. 3 or lower that could shock us and win it all: No. 5 Clemson, No. 4 Washington State, No. 3 Xavier and No. 5 Michigan State.

Other than those tidbits of wisdom, I don’t know much more than you do.

One more thing — just because you picked the correct National Champion on the 43rd bracket you filled out doesn’t mean you know anything more than the rest of us. So don’t act like it.